Floral industry professionals are moving into 2020 with a still-strong economy, but overall growth has slowed and there are headwinds, including uncertainty surrounding trade issues and the upcoming presidential election, among other factors.

What can floral industry members do to better position their companies to ride out the next economic downturn, whenever that comes? Expert speakers from SAF Amelia Island, the Society of American Florists’ 135^th annual convention, held last September in Florida, have suggestions that floral industry business owners can start putting into practice today.

Manage your working capital. “Everyone along the supply chain needs to think lean,” said Charlie Hall, Ph.D., professor and Ellison Chair in the Department of Horticultural Sciences at Texas A&M University. “Be judicious about hiring people and strategic about managing your working capital now, so that you’re in the best possible position” when there is a recession. Hall, by the way, estimates the chance of the U.S. entering a recession in the next year to be about 50/50.

“It’s an election year, so it’s really hard to say,” he said. “We don’t tend to upend the apple cart during election years.” Adding to the uncertainty: trade wars, tariffs, impeachment proceedings and disappointing results so far, in terms of corporate reinvestments and household savings, from The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017.

In addition to “thinking lean,” Hall also said floral pros should consider making strategic investments themselves now while interest rates are low. “Cheap money is available now, especially for people who can make an investment in their business today and pay that debt off in two or three years,” he said. “There’s still time to do that.”

Create a resilient, lasting team. Glenna Hecht of Humanistic Consulting agrees with Hall that floral industry professionals should be strategic about hiring — and she said 2020 is a great time to make recruiting and hiring a year-round plan rather than a regular (stressful) hustle.

“I always say, ‘Don’t go grocery shopping while you’re hungry. You’ll end of up eating a bag of Cheetos even if you never eat Cheetos,” Hecht said. “It’s the same principle when you are looking for employees: Don’t wait until you are desperate.”

In this historically tight labor market, Hall said “turning on and off the hiring spigot” can be a costly and demoralizing mistake. “Look for employees all the time, year-round,” she said. “You never know where or when you’ll find someone great. And, don’t forget that potential employees are paying attention to things like your social media pages.  Communicate through your posts what a great and fulfilling workplace you’ve created — that sends a message that people remember.”

And, if you’re thinking now that a silver lining of an economic downturn might be an easing of this tight labor market… think again, warned Hecht. “It’s true that in a recession more people are looking for work but remember that, especially in the early stages, the extra people now looking for work were the first to be let go by another employer, so you may not be looking at top performers.”

Finally, take time to scope out your competition (inside and outside of the floral industry) to see what kind of salary and benefits those companies are offering. “In some cases, you may find that you really do need to offer something more to be competitive,” Hecht said.

Shore up your value proposition. Hall emphasized that the time is now to make sure your customers see the value of flowers in their daily lives — and the value of you as an expert provider of all the good feelings that both flowers and plants engender.

“All of us who experienced the Great Recession know that flowers can quickly become ‘only’ a luxury item in an economic downturn,” he said. “You need to find ways, through your marketing and communication with your customers, to reinforce the true value of flowers in people’s lives ahead of any economic changes.”

Derek Woodruff, AIFD, PFCI, CF, owner of Floral Underground in Traverse City, a past SAF Sylvia Cup champion and consultant with DesignStrategies, said one way to underline your expertise is to get ahead of design trends, so that you are providing customers with cutting-edge products and services — things they can’t get anywhere else.

One of the biggest color trends right now, for instance:  muddy, muddy, muddy.

“I’m seeing a lot of unusual color combinations that pull in shades of muddy colors—caramel, toffee, anything, really, with a brown or sepia tone,” he explained. “I’m seeing these colors paired with rusty oranges, lavender and all shades of green, some really unusual color combinations that actually marry so well and speak to our specific moment in history.”

Look for more tips on stepping into the new year strongly in the January 2020 issue of Floral Management.

Plus, mark your calendar for a spirited SAF 20-minute webinar and 10-minute Q&A with Hall on Jan. 15 at 2 p.m. During the session, Hall will discuss factors that could signal a coming recession and dive deeper into what floral industry pros can do ahead of time to best prep their businesses.

Mary Westbrook is the editor in chief of Floral Management magazine.