Valentine’s Day falls on a Monday this year, a slower sales day for what is typically one of the busiest holiday weeks for florists. With two years of pandemic sales in the rearview mirror, how can you best prepare to staff your shop for the coming deluge?

Floral finance expert Paul Goodman, MBA, PFCI,  provided step-by-step guidance on how to forecast sales and staffing needs during the Society of American Florists’ Jan. 11 webinar, “Staffing Profitably for Valentine’s Day.”

Forecast Holiday Sales

Start by looking at your sales for Feb. 8 to Feb. 14 in the past three years (2019 to 2021). Using that data, find the average sales for the week of Valentine’s Day for those three years.

The next step is to estimate overall growth year-to-year. Goodman suggests comparing data for September to December of 2020 to the same period for 2021. Apply that percentage increase (or decrease) from 2020 to 2021 to the Valentine’s Day sales average to see how you’ll far this year.

“That should be a good estimate for the week of Valentine’s this year,” Goodman said. “As we all know, nothing’s perfect, but that should give a fairly good idea of what to expect this year.”

Goodman said the final step is to look at how each day leading up to the holiday accounted for overall sales throughout the week. This is another way to anticipate when and how to ramp up staff.

Another tip: When looking at sales numbers, go by delivery date versus order date to ensure you’re tracking Valentine’s Day related orders.

Determine Your Productivity

Before rushing to hire staff, determine the efficiency of your current staff. When it comes to making standard arrangements from a recipe, a designer should be able to assemble four in an hour. Assuming your shop will offer a handful of Valentine’s Day design options, increase the productivity rate for these types of designs by one and a half to two times the normal productivity rate, Goodman said.

For the standard arrangement of a dozen roses with some greenery or baby’s breath, increase production time by preparing the stems in bunches of 12 and setting them out for the designer. They’ll be able to assemble at least five or six an hour and probably more, Goodman said.

It’s safe to assume a driver can deliver four to five arrangements an hour and between 30 and 40 arrangements in an eight-hour shift.

Bring It Altogether

Once you’ve forecasted sales for the holiday week and considered increased productivity it’s time to determine how much staff is needed.

To do this, look at sales on a regular day during a non-holiday week. Goodman suggests pulling sales data for the four weeks following Valentine’s Day.

Compare a typical week of sales to your anticipated holiday sales and increase staffing accordingly, Goodman said.

Another method to calculate staffing needs is to estimate about $1,500 in weekly non-holiday sales for every $100,000 your shop brings in annually. It’s a figure Goodman said he has seen work with remarkable accuracy across many sizes of shops.

Visit Career Connection to watch the webinar (free for members) and access Goodman’s PowerPoint presentation, as well as an Excel file to help you forecast sales.

Kristine Gill is a contributing writer for the Society of American Florists.